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2012 FY visa bulletin

uwocosco
08-29-11, 08:43 PM
F1 F2A F2B F3 F4
FY2009 15-May-03 15-Apr-05 1-Jul-0 15-Dec-00 22-Feb-99
FY2010 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-10 1-Jan-05 1-Mar-02 15-Oct-01
Before REG 15-Feb-06 1-Aug-10 1-Jun-05 1-Jun-02 1-Jan-02
FY2011 1-May-04 1-Dec-08 1-Jul-03 22-Aug-01 15-Apr-00
2009 (1yr) 1y1m 1y3.5m 1y7.5m 5.75m 7.57m
2010/11(2 yrs) 11.5 m 3y7.5m 3y 8.25m 1y1.75m
reg_diff 1y9.5m 1y8m 1y11m 9.75m 1y8.5m

I made this table to help understanding what had happened, and what I can expect.

In 2010, cutoff dates of most Fs moved super fast, because too many people didn't paid when their PD became current ( I guess :yes: ), and interviews were given to those who paid rapidly. So in 2011, there had to be a regression when those guys realized that they made a mistake, and began to pay the bills.

In 2010 and 2011, 2010/2011(2 yrs) + reg_diff * x% visas were issued. So in 2012 FY, PD days will move fast for sure since ( 1 - x%) * reg_diff people already got their visas in 2010. x is approximately (2 * (2009(1yr)) - 2010/2011(2yrs) ) * 100 / reg_diff.

F2A is the biggest winner in 2011. It is moving 2 times faster than in 2009.

reg_diff = PD before regression - PD of Sep 2011

F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.

sunny654
08-29-11, 09:37 PM
F1 F2A F2B F3 F4
FY2009 15-May-03 15-Apr-05 1-Jul-0 15-Dec-00 22-Feb-99
FY2010 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-10 1-Jan-05 1-Mar-02 15-Oct-01
Before REG 15-Feb-06 1-Aug-10 1-Jun-05 1-Jun-02 1-Jan-02
FY2011 1-May-04 1-Dec-08 1-Jul-03 22-Aug-01 15-Apr-00
2009 (1yr) 1y1m 1y3.5m 1y7.5m 5.75m 7.57m
2010/11(2 yrs) 11.5 m 3y7.5m 3y 8.25m 1y1.75m
reg_diff 1y9.5m 1y8m 1y11m 9.75m 1y8.5m

I made this table to help understanding what had happened, and what I can expect.

In 2010, cutoff dates of most Fs moved super fast, because too many people didn't paid when their PD became current ( I guess :yes: ), and interviews were given to those who paid rapidly. So in 2011, there had to be a regression when those guys realized that they made a mistake, and began to pay the bills.

In 2010 and 2011, 2010/2011(2 yrs) + reg_diff * x% visas were issued. So in 2012 FY, PD days will move fast for sure since ( 1 - x%) * reg_diff people already got their visas in 2010. x is approximately (2 * (2009(1yr)) - 2010/2011(2yrs) ) * 100 / reg_diff.

F2A is the biggest winner in 2011. It is moving 2 times faster than in 2009.

reg_diff = PD before regression - PD of Sep 2011

F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.

Gud predictions.....Let C wht happen next Bulletin.:D

imranbodla
08-29-11, 11:26 PM
Good predictions i am waiting for my visa from last 1 year .....my visa numberis not available and admin process also....may be this october brings new hope for us

sachin6878
08-30-11, 12:52 AM
but what about f4.??

puru444
08-30-11, 07:53 AM
F1 F2A F2B F3 F4
FY2009 15-May-03 15-Apr-05 1-Jul-0 15-Dec-00 22-Feb-99
FY2010 1-Jan-06 1-Jan-10 1-Jan-05 1-Mar-02 15-Oct-01
Before REG 15-Feb-06 1-Aug-10 1-Jun-05 1-Jun-02 1-Jan-02
FY2011 1-May-04 1-Dec-08 1-Jul-03 22-Aug-01 15-Apr-00
2009 (1yr) 1y1m 1y3.5m 1y7.5m 5.75m 7.57m
2010/11(2 yrs) 11.5 m 3y7.5m 3y 8.25m 1y1.75m
reg_diff 1y9.5m 1y8m 1y11m 9.75m 1y8.5m

I made this table to help understanding what had happened, and what I can expect.

In 2010, cutoff dates of most Fs moved super fast, because too many people didn't paid when their PD became current ( I guess :yes: ), and interviews were given to those who paid rapidly. So in 2011, there had to be a regression when those guys realized that they made a mistake, and began to pay the bills.

In 2010 and 2011, 2010/2011(2 yrs) + reg_diff * x% visas were issued. So in 2012 FY, PD days will move fast for sure since ( 1 - x%) * reg_diff people already got their visas in 2010. x is approximately (2 * (2009(1yr)) - 2010/2011(2yrs) ) * 100 / reg_diff.

F2A is the biggest winner in 2011. It is moving 2 times faster than in 2009.

reg_diff = PD before regression - PD of Sep 2011

F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.



Well, my maths is not much good. Can u please elaborate ur reasons in laymen's language so that everybdy got it clearly. Anyways, it looks gud when i read that there is a chance to shift back to normal dates in F2b case.
What would be ur opinion about F2A spillover???
Do u think that F2A might get current in FY 2012??

Mannjasmeet
08-30-11, 12:17 PM
good job but lets see after 11 days :) picture will be more clear then

Shehzad
08-30-11, 02:46 PM
F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.

How you so sure that F1 and F2B will be back to normal. As far as i think there is zero percent chance that F1 will go back to normal as it retrogressed 2 times in 2011.

Raven
08-30-11, 03:02 PM
F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.

How you so sure that F1 and F2B will be back to normal. As far as i think there is zero percent chance that F1 will go back to normal as it retrogressed 2 times in 2011.

What is "normal"? :S

sachin6878
08-30-11, 08:36 PM
@raven
normal means pds of categories before retrogression ..like for f-4 1 jan 02.

uwocosco
08-30-11, 09:47 PM
What is "normal"? :S Per my understanding, visa bulletin is just like a bus schedule. For instance, 8am reaches station A, 9am reaches station B, 10am reaches station C, and 11am reaches station D. The average speed is 20km/hour, and it stays 2 minutes at each station --- this is the "normal" state.

However, the driver cannot really follow the schedule. He might arrive 2 minutes early, or 5 minutes late. I think this is "normal" as well.

But in 2010, the bus just ran like crazy. It arrived station C at 8:50am, and then had to stay there until 10am. The good thing is that some people got to station C early that they expected. The bad thing is that some people missed the bus because it left station B too early. This is abnormal for me, since it either ran too fast or ran too slowly( or stopped).

A better example is F3, in 2009, the PD date moved about 6 months, and it did almost the same in 2008. So 6m/yr is a normal speed. But in 2010, and early 2011, it moved at a speed of about 15m/yr ( 17.5m/14m). That's 2.5 times of 2009. I am not sure how many people got their visas, and how many people just waited there for the interviews. But obviously, it then moved very slowly: 4.13m/yr for 2010 and 2011. 2yr *(6m-4m)/yr = 4 months. This means the PD dates of the next 4 months should have been current if there was no regression. When these PD dates, plus the regular movement ( 0.5m/m ) become current. Things are getting "normal".

wstrader
08-30-11, 09:58 PM
deleted

uwocosco
08-30-11, 09:59 PM
but what about f4.??
f4 speed is not stable. If we use 2009's data, 2yr * 8m/yr = 16m. In 2010 and 2011, it is actually 13.75m. So there is 4 months space...

But for these 4 months, the PD dates had been available for quite a long time. So I am actually expecting something better. :lol:

uwocosco
08-30-11, 10:28 PM
Well, my maths is not much good. Can u please elaborate ur reasons in laymen's language so that everybdy got it clearly. Anyways, it looks gud when i read that there is a chance to shift back to normal dates in F2b case.
What would be ur opinion about F2A spillover???
Do u think that F2A might get current in FY 2012??Sorry, for F2, speed is unpredictable. The impact of US economic collapse is a main concern. F2s are already very fast. Some people might get visa even faster, and the others might not be qualified anymore.

uwocosco
08-30-11, 10:41 PM
F1, and F2B will definitely go back to the normal states. F2A is little bit weird. For F3 and F4, it is very hard to say.

How you so sure that F1 and F2B will be back to normal. As far as i think there is zero percent chance that F1 will go back to normal as it retrogressed 2 times in 2011. retrogression times doesn't mean anything. There might be just one person submitted his documents. The cutoff date of F1 is May,2004. The bills for those PDs were mailed out almost two years ago. Do you believe that so many people just waited for 2 years?

Ukraino4ka
08-31-11, 12:18 AM
Retrogression is not caused by whether petitioners have paid or not, it's caused because demand for visa is growing.
And that of course sucks for all of us... my pd is oct.2007..case complete, but I'm waiting for visa number for a year now, and I have seen no movement for F1 for about half a year

dapper.3
08-31-11, 04:55 AM
all these questions will be answered in about 10 days time..!

dapper.3
08-31-11, 04:58 AM
no need to fret about anything now...or waste your time in developing new algorithms ...! My sister hired a lawyer for my case..( it had to be refiled)... the lawyer said that filed applications will never go for a waste... we will get the visa one day...!

Raven
08-31-11, 10:10 AM
What is "normal"? :S Per my understanding, visa bulletin is just like a bus schedule. For instance, 8am reaches station A, 9am reaches station B, 10am reaches station C, and 11am reaches station D. The average speed is 20km/hour, and it stays 2 minutes at each station --- this is the "normal" state.

However, the driver cannot really follow the schedule. He might arrive 2 minutes early, or 5 minutes late. I think this is "normal" as well.

But in 2010, the bus just ran like crazy. It arrived station C at 8:50am, and then had to stay there until 10am. The good thing is that some people got to station C early that they expected. The bad thing is that some people missed the bus because it left station B too early. This is abnormal for me, since it either ran too fast or ran too slowly( or stopped).
Interesting analogy, and appropriate I think. Except for the fact that there is no schedule.

The visa bulletion is not a schedule, it's a forecast as to how the bus is going to run tomorrow. And like any forecast, it's prone to error. Usually, tomorrow's run will be similar to yesterday's run, or next Monday's run will be similar to last Monday's run. But there are unknowable events that can happen, things that can lighten the passenger load on a particular day and things that can increase the passenger load on a particular day.

My own answer to my rhetorical question is that 'normal' is advancement of priority date from month to month, but not necessarily a steady advancement.

Raven
08-31-11, 10:16 AM
f4 speed is not stable.
Sorry, for F2, speed is unpredictable.
Speed is not stable, or predictable with any degree of accuracy, for all preference categories.

Shehzad
08-31-11, 03:00 PM
f4 speed is not stable.
Sorry, for F2, speed is unpredictable.
Speed is not stable, or predictable with any degree of accuracy, for all preference categories.

Who says it is not predictable. I can predict. For all categories I not only predict but i guarantee that it will move more than 1 week in october 2011 bulletin.:rock:

dapper.3
08-31-11, 03:06 PM
I say 2 weeks.... wanna bet LOL

Raven
08-31-11, 09:04 PM
Who says it is not predictable. I can predict. For all categories I not only predict but i guarantee that it will move more than 1 week in october 2011 bulletin.

Let me clarify - any fool can predict, predicting accurately is another matter entirely.

The DoS Visa Service has far more information than you as to what is happening from month to month, yet the visa bulletin itself can make severely wrong predictions. If their predictions were always accurate there would never be retrogression.

sunny654
08-31-11, 10:46 PM
f4 speed is not stable.
Sorry, for F2, speed is unpredictable.
Speed is not stable, or predictable with any degree of accuracy, for all preference categories.

Who says it is not predictable. I can predict. For all categories I not only predict but i guarantee that it will move more than 1 week in october 2011 bulletin.:rock:

Stupid Prediction....its new fiscal year start and you say only move more than one week.

waleedkb
09-01-11, 04:28 AM
10 more days or 11. The curtain shall be unveiled :)

Mannjasmeet
09-01-11, 09:42 AM
Dates will move to pre retrogression dates, what i have noticed after analysis of the retrogression in years 1996, 2001 and 2006 things got better from october everytime.
we can just hope,,,,,i am not saying anything for sure that dates will move to pre retrogression. Iam sharing what i have found friends. GOD MAY BLESS US ALL :)

sachin6878
09-01-11, 11:08 AM
deleted

Mannjasmeet
09-01-11, 12:44 PM
deleted

sunny654
09-01-11, 02:00 PM
deleted Forum Rules #14 and #18

Just join visa journey now....

dapper.3
09-01-11, 02:13 PM
deleted

Mannjasmeet
09-01-11, 03:53 PM
deleted

uwocosco
09-01-11, 10:41 PM
The visa bulletion is not a schedule, it's a forecast as to how the bus is going to run tomorrow. And like any forecast, it's prone to error. Usually, tomorrow's run will be similar to yesterday's run, or next Monday's run will be similar to last Monday's run. But there are unknowable events that can happen, things that can lighten the passenger load on a particular day and things that can increase the passenger load on a particular day.

My own answer to my rhetorical question is that 'normal' is advancement of priority date from month to month, but not necessarily a steady advancement. Agree. So I didn't even try to predict anything. But I can see 4-month spaces for most categories to move, and there shouldn't be many people left for these 4 months.

Retrogression didn't really impact my application. It just gave me a hope, and then toke it away. I wish they those guys feel guilty of what they had done, and work harder in the following months. :)

nrocky
09-02-11, 07:37 AM
deleted

dapper.3
09-02-11, 10:46 AM
deleted

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